US economic growth will continue in 2020, but the rate of growth will slow
to below 2%, according to the macroeconomic forecast released this month
by the National Association for Business Economics, a professional association
for those who use economics in their work.
“NABE Outlook Survey panelists believe the US economy will continue to
expand into 2020, but they anticipate GDP growth will fall below 2% next
year for the first time since 2016,” said NABE President Constance Hunter,
chief economist, KPMG. “The consensus forecast calls for real GDP growth
to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019, and then to 1.8% in 2020.”
Risk to the economy is weighted toward the downside, according to the
report, which is based on a panel of 54 forecasters.
“The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower
global growth are considered key downside risks to US economic activity,”
said Survey Chair Gregory Daco, chief US economist, Oxford Economics.
Odds of a recession remain generally low for the next 12 months, but increase
in late 2020, according to the report. Panelists put the odds of a
recession starting before the end of 2020 at 47%.
In terms of jobs, panelists estimated monthly job growth will ease to
129,000 in 2020 from 164,000 this year.
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts